By Ben Levisohn

Wall Street analysts tend to be a bullish lot, and few have been as bullish as FundStrat’s Thomas Lee, who’s been accused of being a perma-bull. But just as his colleagues seem to be embracing another year of gains, Lee has decided to dial back the optimism. In his 2017 outlook released today, Lee wrote that he expects that S&P 500 to finish the year at 2,275, down a few points from a recent 2,278.72, and could drop as low as 2,150 during the first half of the year. He lists the downside risks:

Bloomberg News

• A sloppy White House organization creates confusion on US policy, particularly as tweets become policy.
• Washington does not pass infrastructure stimulus.
• Tax reform multiplier is smaller than market is
  expecting.
• Trump “fires” Janet—Fed becomes fall guy for Trump when equity markets get volatile.
• Fed tightens excessively.
• USD soars.
• Europe migrant issues deteriorates and “crexit” worsens.
• Former President Obama becomes a vocal critic.

Wow. Who would have thunk it?

The S&P 500 has risen 0.4% to 2,278.68 at 3:37 p.m. today, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced 76.66 points, or 0.4%, to 19,975.95. The Nasdaq Composite has gained 0.7% to 5,525.39.