Weekly calendar 09/12~09/16/2016
The Week Ahead
We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react. That is the purpose of considering possible themes for the week ahead. You can make your own predictions in the comments.
The Calendar
We have another light week for economic data. While personally I watch everything on the calendar, you do not need to! I highlight only the most important items in WTWA. Focus is essential.
The “A” List
- Retail sales (T). The biggest report of the week. The odds of a rate hike will increase if this is positive.
- Michigan sentiment (F). Consumer confidence has been strong, helping to support the stock market.
- Initial claims (Th). The best concurrent indicator for employment trends. Quiet strength is the long-term trend, so a spike would be worrisome.
The “B” List
- Industrial production (Th). Volatile data with a big gain last month. Not much is expected, but this remains important.
- CPI (F). Still not important, but this number will start to approach the Fed’s 2% inflation target as year-over-year gasoline prices stabilize.
- PPI (Th). See CPI above.
- Business inventories (Th). July data, but it is another piece in the Q2 GDP puzzle.
- Crude inventories (W). Often has a significant impact on oil markets, a focal point for traders of everything.
FedSpeak will enter the pre-meeting blackout period after Monday. Fed Governor Lael Brainard has been dovish, so her Monday presentation will get plenty of attention.
