Study of Bob McNally
- 09/02/2022
Take this collaborative exposition about #gasoline politics on a road show? Glad to appear with friends and experts including @kevinbookdc and @sladislaw. @RapidanEnergy https://t.co/g9keIhXLyl
— Bob McNally (@Bob_McNally) September 2, 2022
A good video to keep at the ready ahead of hurricane season, and maybe even a mini-course in #gasoline #politics in the U.S. (no idea how many credit hours). Always great to hear terrific insight from @mylesmccormick_, @sladislaw and @Bob_McNally, as well. https://t.co/QFvoUKLPd6
— Kevin Book (@kevinbookdc) September 2, 2022
Are high petrol prices killing the American Dream? | FT Energy Source
- 08/19/2022 – Great insights from Bob
— Sohaib Abbas (@sohaibab9) July 31, 2022
- Swing producer (governor, supply manager) – somebody who provide something that normally doesn’t exist in the oil Market which is quickly producible flexible Supply that has a legal authority to cut of operate the bounce the market. For the last 15 years and so far, we don’t have that and we have to learn to live with Space Mountain kind of volatility now
- Russian-Ukraine war – mr. Putin on February 24th hit fast forward on not only a fundamental cycle and sort of introducing a cycle within a cycle by post the biggest disruption risk really since the 1970s on top of this transition from hence we almost took select $140 a barrel right that’s all been pushed back but still I think though that destruction risk is is coming so mr. Putin sort of threatened to hit fast forward on this boom cycle and you know all booms end with bust
- the oil demand is very insensitive to price what is very sensitive to economic activity
- we have this with a multi-year bust phase and I’m sure that we entered and I was position for so very very fluid very uncertain
- This crisis with Russia, you know, again, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, we’re not even at the end of the beginning, much less the beginning of the end. We are in the initial phase. This still is still. This is still escalating and if anything the military tempo has died down a little bit and the energy nature of this conflict. The energy war aspect of this is about to ramp up, so I think it’s all important to keep that in mind as we just navigate our way through. We have not even seen the beginning of the of the end of this this Russian crisis,
- in third-quarter it seems that you know we just talked a little bit so just to be clear our house view is we’re going to have a rally this quarter we have a forecast we updated last week of $117 Brent quarterly average 3Q
- there are two problems from 2014 have sort of been solved – in2014 it’s too much shale and too much Russia and and be capped its growth potential nekros protection is going to be involuntarily contributing Cuts here in the next few quarters so in a way as we have a good environment
- I am in a consciously optimistic we may be bottom at the 90 $80 Brent and then we all are we load for the multi-year boom cycle to come
- on the risk of course to that I’m always ask myself where’s the risk to my forecast is much weaker you know that we have a deeper down turn light 2008 + aren’t able or willing to cut fast enough under it and we have to implode one more time so that’s kind of the rest of the view
- on the Upstream side but the Midstream and downstream April the on the supply side the structural boom nature of this decade got even stronger as I put it a boom Cycles even Boomer and and one reason is Major is leaving Russia and Russia I think being because of that too as strong of net production growth
- I think they want to refill when it gets in the crude price Falls to 80 or below there looking at changing the rules to do that making the deal allowing the deal we have going to enter the fixed-price contract but you can’t right now so I think that’s great and a great signal I’ll be cautiously optimistic Farm will actually do it though and I really is not just about refilling the emergency release but it’s stopping the Congressional sale so anyway if you’re bullish this decade they draining of the spr
- Peak demand for the IEA has led the world into thinking that not only should oil demand peak in about ten years before climate change reasons but that it will I mean it’s hits I literally cancel this business as usual for caps and I was telling the world look we’re not going 120 million barrels a day
- I think this this deep reluctance to invest especially in Greenfield projects is I think 75% due to the emergence from a bust face I got about we’ve forgotten just how demoralizing for investors and operators how awful this was I tell folks you just over two years ago was considering reimposing quotas on producers have not forgotten that I have friends who not only left the money and it was a disaster and I think you know if it gets the PTSD from a bus phase what here is that several years of firm oil prices growing confidence
- end of SPR release – I would say it’s almost bullish I could think that 117 Brent is maybe too low as a quart of the average so we see if that implies daily prince in the twenties and thirties but I think for all the receipt all the reasons you just laid out we could easily be higher than that and this winter
- Josh’s question on $90 vs $19 oil price – base is $90, do not know the short term, culd be dramatic to $19
- how can Biden admin fix current policy – change stuff, invite more experts
- when to exit the investment – Arjun: several years down the road when we see CAPEX intensified; Bob: be aware of the macro effect such as debt mountain and interest rate hike
