Prepare to invest in Russell 2000 for my 401k plan. Here is the reason
http://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-puts-america-first-small-stocks-can-win-big-1479408481
Trump Puts America First; Small Stocks Can Win Big
Options traders seem too bearish on small stocks, which have surged since Trump won the election.
Pixabay
If you are looking for an America First investment strategy to match President-elect Donald Trump’s apparent foreign policy, look toward small stocks.
The iShares Russell 2000 exchange-traded fund (ticker: IWM) is comprised of stocks that get most, if not all, of their revenue from within U.S. borders. Since Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a nasty political campaign, the Russell 2000 has surged. Investors believe small-capitalization stocks will benefit from Trump’s expected protectionist trade policies, a repeal of Obamacare and domestic fiscal stimulus for infrastructure projects.
During the week of the election, the index rose 10.22%, which Jonathan Krinsky, an MKM Partners’ strategist, noted was its best weekly performance since 2011. “More impressive than the percentage gain, however, was internal breadth, which saw the highest percentage of 52-week highs on record (data back to 1995),” he advised clients earlier this week.
Krinsky said that type of breadth expansion indicates either a blow-off top after an extended advance, or the start of a new uptrend after a prolonged period of consolidation. “Given that the (index) has moved sideways for two years, our inclination is the latter,” he said.
Lori Calvasina, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. stock strategist, told clients earlier this week that she expects the Russell 2000 will outperform the Standard & Poor’s 500 index because the index’s companies get 19% of their revenue from international sources, versus 31% for S&P 500 stocks. From a valuation perspective, she said small-caps also screen as inexpensive, compared with the S&P 500.
Chasing stocks is for chumps so we want to fashion a strategy that positions investors to buy small-cap stocks on a pullback, while also participating in any continuation of the rally. Because the Russell 2000 is a tracking index, and thus not traded, we recommend the sector’s proxy, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, to implement our America First trade.
Investors can think about using a risk-reversal strategy that involves selling a put, and buying a call, that have different strike prices, but similar expirations. The strategy is used when investors are willing to buy a security on decline, but do not want to miss out on a rally.
With IWM at $130.17, the January $126 put was bid at $2.80, and the January $132 call was offered at $2.65. In other words, the options market is paying you to agree to buy IWM below $126. Above $132, investors will profit. If IWM is at $140, for example, the January $132 call is worth $8. Over the past 52-weeks, IWM has ranged from $93.64 to $130.80. The ETF must pop into a new bullish trading range for the call to be profitable.
Investors must understand that the trade, while attractively priced, exists in profound disagreement with IWM’s trading patterns.
Of IWM’s 7.36 million outstanding contracts, 1.98 million are bullish calls, and 5.38 million are bearish puts. The 10 most widely held contracts are all downside puts. The top three contracts anticipate IWM drops below $114 by January expiration. Though IWM just set a 52-week high, the ETF is on “hard to borrow” lists. This means so many investors have “shorted” the ETF in anticipation of a sharp decline that it is hard to locate additional shares for anyone else. At October’s end, 113 million shares were short, which is equal to five days of IWM’s average trading volume.
This demand for puts is reflected in IWM’s implied volatility profile. The January $126 put is trading with an implied volatility of about 21%, compared with 17% for the January $132 call.
The ETF’s annual implied volatility is 18.5%, just above historical volatility of 18%. Those percentage levels tell us that the ETF, and the options, are priced for a big decline. This seems extreme given the expected changes in America’s relations, diplomatic and commercial, with foreign nations.
We are advocating a trading stance that indicates we think fear has reached an extreme level; anyone who considers the IWM risk reversal must understand that selling a put when everyone else is buying them is a bold act. Do not consider the trade if you are not willing to buy IWM at $126, or sharply lower. A key risk is that the market mob is right and IWM sinks. If you can live with those risks, sentiment is so negative right now that it seems bullish.