Weekly calendar 09/26~09/30/2016
Monday
Earnings: Vail Resorts, Carnival, Cal-Maine Foods
9:30 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
10 a.m. New home sales
11:45 a.m. Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo on stress testing
1 p.m. $26 billion 2-year note auction
1:30 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan
9 p.m. U.S. presidential debate
Tuesday
Earnings: Nike, Markit, FactSet, Cintas
9 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices
9:45 a.m. Services PMI
10 a.m. Consumer confidence
11:15 a.m. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer at Howard University on why study economics
1 p.m. $34 billion five-year note auction
Wednesday
Earnings: Paychex, BlackBerry, IDT, Pier 1 Imports, Actuant, Progress Software
8:30 a.m. Durable goods
8:45 a.m. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari
10 a.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies on supervision and regulation, House Financial Services Committee
10:15 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
1 p.m. $28 billion 7-year note auction
1:30 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
4:35 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
7:15 p.m. Kansas City Fed President Esther George
Thursday
Earnings: PepsiCo, ConAgra, Costco, Accenture, CalAmp
5 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
8:30 a.m. Initial claims
8:30 a.m. GDP Q2 (third read)
8:30 a.m. International trade (Aug adv)
8:50 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart
10 a.m. Fed Gov. Jerome Powell
10 a.m. Pending home sales
2:30 p.m. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari
4 p.m. Fed Chair Yellen speaks via videoconference with a forum for minority bankers, Kansas City Fed
Friday
Earnings: McCormick, The Container Store
8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending
9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI
10 a.m. Consumer sentiment
The Calendar
We have a big week for economic data, setting up for some important reports at the start of October. While personally I watch everything on the calendar, you do not need to! I highlight only the most important items in WTWA. Focus is essential.
The “A” List
- Personal income and spending (NYSE:F). Can the recent strength continue?
- New home sales (NYSE:M). A decrease is expected, but how much?
- Michigan sentiment . An important concurrent indicator for employment and spending. Is there an election effect?
- Consumer confidence . See Michigan sentiment. This is almost as good and usually correlated.
- Initial claims (Th). The best concurrent indicator for employment trends.
The “B” List
- Pending home sales (Th). Not as important for the economy as new homes, but still a good read on the market.
- Chicago PMI . The most important of the regional indexes, especially when released on the Friday before the ISM index.
- Durable goods orders (NYSE:W). Highly volatile August data with a big monthly decline expected. Any chance of an upside surprise?
- Core PCE prices . The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, so it is worth watching.
- GDP third estimate (Th). Few are interested in the final revision (before later benchmarking) of Q2 GDP, but this is what goes into the books.
- Crude inventories . Often has a significant impact on oil markets, a focal point for traders of everything.
The first Presidential debate will be a news highlight with markets paying attention. FedSpeak is back in full swing. Chair Yellen testifies on Wednesday before a House committee on bank supervision.
