Weekly calendar 08/15 ~ 08/19/2016
The Calendar
We have another moderate week for economic data and the end of earnings season is near. While personally I watch everything, I highlight only the most important items in WTWA. It is important to focus.
The “A” List
- Building permits and housing starts (T). Permits are a good leading indicator.
- FOMC minutes (W). No one really expects any fresh news, but the punditry will find something.
- Leading indicators (Th). Still highly regarded by many, despite the various redefinitions. Continuing strength expected.
- Initial claims (Th). The best concurrent indicator for employment trends.
The “B” List
- Industrial production (T). Improvement expected in this lagging series, important to GDP.
- CPI (T). Inflation data remains a secondary indicator. It will take a few hot months to bring it to the fore.
- Philly Fed (Th). A rebound expected. This result has earned growing respect.
- Crude inventories (W). Often has a significant impact on oil markets, a focal point for traders of everything.
There is plenty of FedSpeak for those who have been missing that. Options expiration on Friday may delay the exodus to the beach for some.
This week, minutes from July meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank could offer guidance on coming monetary policy decisions in two of the world’s largest economies. Japan’s economic output, U.S. inflation and industrial production reports, and details on China’s housing market loom largest on the global economic data front.
MONDAY: Japan’s second-quarter gross domestic product data is expected to show a weaker outturn than the first part of the year, adding pressure on Tokyo to ramp up efforts to revive the stagnating economy. Economists forecast an annualized growth rate of 0.7% in the quarter, down from a 1.9% expansion recorded in the first quarter. (Data due out late Sunday Eastern Time)
TUESDAY: U.S. core inflation data for July could bolster or undermine the case for the Fed to raise rates in December as many economists predict if the Consumer Price Index continues June’s marginal firming. Low oil prices, a strong dollar and slow economic growth have kept a lid on inflation, but economists forecast a 0.2% rise in the core CPI, replicating the previous month’s figure. The Fed’s industrial production report for July, expected to show a gain of 0.3% against a 0.6% increase in June, should show whether factory output has stabilized after several months of shaky data.
WEDNESDAY: Investors, economists and analysts will sift through the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting for confirmation the central bank is considering a December rate increase. The minutes also will offer fresh insight into the Fed’s reaction to the global financial and economic fallout from Britain’s surprise vote to leave the European Union.
THURSDAY: The European Central Bank will release minutes of its July policy meeting, offering investors guidance on ECB thinking regarding potential additional asset purchases. They also will offer clues on how the central bank expects the June Brexit vote could affect the eurozone economy and the extent to which officials are worrying about regional banking problems. Also Thursday (late Wednesday Eastern Time), Chinareleases monthly housing-price data from 70 cities around the country. The report will be watched for further signs of deceleration in a property sector that helped support steel prices, the construction industry and the world’s second-largest economy more broadly.
