Here are the possible future economic and geo-politic events that might impact market
- Possible large scale terrorist attacks, especially in US
- Negative impact eventsbrexit signed Article 50
- Scotland exits EU
other EU countries exit EUOil price dips againterrosist attack - Positive impact events
- Britain’s vote last month to leave the European Union have put corporate planning and investment on hold
- Brexit vote compounded strains in banking system burdened by sour loans; ‘Italy is the patient that is sickest’
- The coming months promise to be tumultuous for Italian banks. The European Banking Authority will conduct stress tests of banks by the end of July and could single out some as having insufficient capital buffers.
- In August, an ECB task force looking at bad loans will publish draft guidance on how banks should deal with the problem. While the guidelines will be nonbinding, the supervisors could raise pressure on banks that don’t follow them.
- The pain is greater in Europe’s periphery. Portugal’s banking system continues to struggle with souring loans, low profitability and little investor appetite. The country received an international bailout in 2011, but given Portugal’s high debt, authorities held off on a cleanup of banks’ balance sheets through the creation of a systemwide “bad bank.” That idea is being discussed now.
- All this threatens to spark a crisis of confidence in Italian banks, analysts say. Although Italy has only one bank classified as globally significant under international banking regulations—UniCredit—some analysts say bank stresses worsened by Brexit could threaten Italy’s stability and, potentially, even that of the EU.
- After Brexit, Another European Referendum Looms for ItalyItalian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi says the reforms — which would simplify and accelerate the passage of laws — are long overdue and will finally bring an end to decades of his country’s notorious revolving-door governments.But Italian analysts say the October vote could turn into a referendum on the Italian government itself — and could prove as much of a boomerang for Renzi, who has been prime minister for 2 1/2 years, as the U.K. referendum has been for David Cameron.Complicating matters further are Italy’s banking problems. Italy’s banks are burdened by $400 billion in bad loans, one-third the eurozone total. These problems predate the arrival of Renzi’s center-left government, but they have become a politically explosive issue after thousands of small depositors were wiped out at four regional banks over the last year and several savers who lost all their money committed suicide.
- EU history
Something to learn from Big Short’s Jamie Mai
Cornwall seeks highly asymmetric investments, in which the upside potential significantly exceeds the downside risk, across a broad spectrum of strategies ranging from trades that seek to benefit from market inefficiencies to thematic fundamental trades. The firm has produced an average annual compounded net return of 40 percent (52 percent gross).
read book of Big Short to learn more
from wikipedia
