Study of LMND
- 11/28/2024 – investment short thesis on lmnd
Here’s a concise short thesis for investing in Lemonade (LMND), drawing on its challenges and market risks:
1. Profitability Concerns
- Lemonade has consistently reported significant losses since its IPO in 2020. While revenue growth has been strong, the company has struggled to achieve profitability due to high customer acquisition costs and operating expenses
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- Insurance is a capital-intensive business, and Lemonade’s reliance on reinsurance to offset risk limits its profit margins
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2. High Valuation vs. Fundamentals
- Lemonade’s valuation has often been considered high compared to traditional insurers with more stable earnings. Investors have questioned whether its premium tech valuation is justified given its persistent losses and heavy dependence on external funding
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3. Market Competition
- The insurtech space is increasingly competitive, with larger, established insurers investing heavily in technology and digital offerings. Lemonade’s differentiation through AI and a digital-first approach may not remain unique
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- Established competitors have better access to capital, brand trust, and pricing power, posing a challenge to Lemonade’s customer retention and acquisition efforts.
4. Loss Ratios and Risk Pricing
- Lemonade has faced issues with its loss ratios (claims paid vs. premiums collected), which are higher than industry averages. This indicates potential problems with underwriting and risk assessment, especially as it expands into complex markets like auto insurance
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5. Macroeconomic Headwinds
- Rising interest rates and inflationary pressures increase the cost of claims and affect consumer spending on discretionary insurance products, posing additional challenges to growth
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6. Execution Risks in Expansion
- Lemonade’s rapid product and geographic expansion (e.g., into car insurance and European markets) adds execution risks. Scaling these offerings while managing losses may stretch resources and lead to operational inefficiencies
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While Lemonade has a compelling vision and has made progress in disrupting the insurance industry, its financial struggles, competitive pressures, and execution risks make it a challenging investment at its current stage.
- 11/28/2024 – Daniel Schreiber: CEO of Lemonade | InsurTech Digital – bio of CEO
- 11/28/2024 – track record of Daniel Schreiber – CEO of Lemonade – from Chatgpt
Daniel Schreiber, CEO and co-founder of Lemonade, has a diverse and accomplished professional background. Before founding Lemonade in 2015, Schreiber worked in several industries, including technology and marketing. He co-founded Alchemedia, a cybersecurity firm later acquired by Finjan Software, and held executive roles at M-Systems, where he was involved in developing USB flash drive technology. M-Systems was eventually sold to SanDisk for $1.6 billion, where Schreiber continued as a senior executive. He also co-led Powermat Technologies, a pioneer in wireless charging solutions PYMNTS.com, Home of InsurTech News .
Under his leadership, Lemonade has disrupted the insurance industry with its digital-first approach and focus on transparency and social responsibility. The company is a certified B-Corp, donating unclaimed premiums to charities, and is actively committed to environmental causes. Lemonade has expanded into multiple markets and products, including renters, homeowners, car, pet, and life insurance. Despite facing financial challenges, such as significant stock value declines since its 2020 IPO, Lemonade has shown improvement in operational efficiency and cash flow, with plans to become cash-flow positive by 2025 PYMNTS.com, Home of InsurTech News,
Schreiber emphasizes a leadership style centered on storytelling, collaboration, and trusting his team. His vision for Lemonade is to make it an iconic insurance brand of the 21st century. Home of InsurTech News, Home of InsurTech News.
- 11/27/2024 – The LMND Bull Thesis in 20 Minutes
- 11/24/2024 – what is Telematics
3 Reasons Why You Might Not Want Telematics Car Insurance — and 5 Reasons to Try
$LMND 用AI卖保险的公司，我眼中保险业的特斯拉
目前华人圈我知道投这家公司的很少，英文圈有一批铁粉。 另外他们大部分都是特斯拉的投资者，大家公认这两家公司很像。
公司slogan：Forget everything you know about insurance！
Lemonade （科技保险公司）是我投资组合中的一只持仓股票。公司下周二出财报 首先声明单纯分享完全不是投资建议，小公司亏钱中风险大，别不做调查瞎跟风，自己要对自己的钱负责 公司slogan：Forget everything you know about insurance！ 个人核心投资逻辑： •保险市场巨大，占到GDP 2-6%，预计2030年达到10 trillion. 现存大部分保险公司巨头都是几十上百年的老公司，大部分是agent based，数字化信息化差，存在巨大的inefficiency. •Lemonade策略注重吸纳年轻的数字原住民/初次购买保险者，提供优质服务锁定客户的一辈子；早期卖low premium的租客和宠物保险，随后随着客户年龄增长消费升级，通过交叉销售和升级销售其他产品 （房屋车辆保险）。 •2015年成立，成长迅速，目前拥有200多万客户，在35岁以下首次买租房保险的人群中的市场份额达到20%以上。 •保险界的“端到端”：超过50多个AI模型连接成一个决策大脑，个性化定价/监测骗保等等。 •Lemonade 无agent代理，从quote到赔付全部线上完成，通过chatbot提供便捷快速服务。 •AI实现3秒内即时理赔支付。目前AI已经处理了1/3的客户互动，20%的回复电子邮件，以及1/2的自动赔付且无需人工干预！从长远来看，这个数字将接近100%，除非处理极其复杂的案件。这意味着极大的operational leverage和客户满意度！ •市场目前看不懂这家公司。认为他只是一家普通保险公司，股价跌在底板。然而这家公司的本质是AI做保险生意，自动化程度极高，容易scale，效率碾压同行。
Lemonade is an online insurance company that simplifies the onboarding and claims process with its AI-powered chatbots. That simple digital-first approach made it popular with younger and first-time insurance buyers, and more than 70% of its customers were under the age of 35 at the time of its initial public offering in 2020. It initially only offered renters and homeowners insurance, but it now offers term life, pet health, and auto insurance policies. It ended its latest quarter with 2.31 million customers, compared to just over 1 million customers at the end of 2020.
For 2024, Lemonade expects its in-force premiums to rise 26%, its gross earned premiums to grow 22%-23%, and its total revenue to increase 21%-22%. It also sees its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) improving from negative $173 million in 2023 to negative $151 million-$155 million in 2024.
Lemonade hasn’t proven its business model is sustainable yet, but it’s growing much faster than its larger competitors. With an enterprise value of $2.9 billion, it trades at just 4 times next year’s sales — so it might generate millionaire-maker gains if it scales up its business, narrows its losses, and widens its moat.
- 11/22/2024 – The Next 10x: Lemonade’s Investor Day 2024
Insiders of Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) own a significant portion of the company’s shares. As of the latest data, insiders collectively hold 58.49% of the company’s stock. This includes major shareholders like:
- Daniel Schreiber (CEO): Owns approximately 19.18% of the company.
- Shai Wininger (President): Holds around 21.53% of the company.
- Mwashuma Kamata Nyatta (Director): Owns about 16.81% of the company.
This high level of insider ownership often indicates that the company’s leadership is highly invested in its success, which can be a positive sign for investors.
- 11/22/2024 – LMND insider is selling shares for total about $2 mil
Insider Selling: Lemonade, Inc. (NYSE:LMND) COO Sells $945,760.00 in Stock | InsiderTrades.com
- 11/21/2024 – The Next 10x: Lemonade’s Investor Day 2024
- 11/20/2024 – Ty R. Sagalow | CEO and Founder of Innovation Insurance Group, LLC.
Mr. Sagalow is a 30-year veteran of the insurance industry, having held senior executive positions in underwriting, legal, and product development for major insurance companies.
Mr. Sagalow is an expert in new product development in a range of insurance product lines, particularly cyber-insurance, directors & officers liability insurance, professional liability insurance, employment practices liability insurance, and reputation insurance. Additionally, with his unique background combining management and professional liability legal, underwriting, and policy drafting, Mr. Sagalow is one of the industry’s most sought-after experts in D&O/E&O coverage disputes.
Mr. Sagalow spent 25 years as a senior executive with AIG. His major positions included ten years as Chief Underwriting Officer and General Counsel for AIG Executive Liability (f/k/a National Union). National Union is the largest provider of management and professional liability insurance in the United States. From 2000 to 2005, he was Chief Operating Officer of AIG eBusiness Risk Solutions, a large provider of security and privacy insurance. From 2005 to 2009, he headed up new product development at AIG General Insurance as President of Product Development before moving to Zurich North America as Chief Innovation Officer. In April 2011, he departed Zurich to create Innovation Insurance Group.
Products Mr. Sagalow has created have produced hundreds of millions of dollars of gross premium and include Y2k Insurance, (Entity Cover) Directors and Officers Insurance, Cyber Insurance, Reputation Insurance, and Intellectual Property Collateral Insurance.
Mr. Sagalow is a frequent author and speaker. His works include @Risk: Internet and E-Commerce Insurance and Reinsurance Legal Issues and Directors & Officers Insurance Handbook.
Mr. Sagalow has appeared on CNBC, WPIX-TV, PBS and Bloomberg Radio, and he has spoken before various tech, legal and insurance forums on issues including the White House, Department of Homeland Security, and Congress.
He is also the host of the series “Innovations in Insurance with Ty Sagalow,” produced by World Risk and Insurance News.
Mr. Sagalow has been interviewed on the topic of innovation by many organizations, including Harvard Business Review and Business Insurance.
He is a summa cum laude graduate of Long Island University, a cum laude graduate of Georgetown University Law Center, and he earned the LLM from New York University School of Law.
Lemonade CEO Daniel Schreiber joins CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime to discuss plans to grow 10x, recent Q3 ’24 quarterly results, and how AI is transforming insurance end-to-end, from customer experience to precision in underwriting and automation.
