Guru watch

1. Andrew Left (long only): website BHC
2. Mike Burry (scion asset management LLC) :
   • 11/18/2020 – Michael Burry’s (Of ‘The Big Short’) Q3 Holdings Include His COVID-19 Vaccine Plays
   • 08/14/2019 –Burry-13F  (Aug1419-Burry-13F) CLEVELAND CLIFFS INC, TAILORED BRANDS INC, WESTERN DIGITAL CORP:A collection of great investment cases. Remember all of them and try to apply them to my investment ideas.
   • Michael Burry – Avant
   • What Is Michael Burry (Of ‘The Big Short’) Doing Post COVID-19?
3. Todd Sullivan (valueplays.net)
4. David Tepper (APPALOOSA LP):
5. 02/14/2020 – FORM 13F, obviously, Tepper has sold all his largest positions in QQQ call, SP500 call and QCOM call maybe because of the high valuation of market. I think after the market crash, he might come back to ETFs again. He is really really good at investment through significant macro effects.
6. 08/14/2019 – 13F-HR (14Aug2019_Tepper_13-F) Invesco QQQ ETF call, SP500 call, PCG, etc

5. Bill Ackman

• 06/05/2021 – Ackman’s interview on WSJ

Bill Ackman Predicts Financial Crisis. This is his Stock Portfolio NOW

1. the inflation is everywhere. It might not be transitory as Fed thinks/hopes
2. wage can not be reduced once it is increased
3. economy reopening, people’s animal spirits + stimulus plan + infrastructure plan + Fed’s extremely accommodated rate policy, everything happens in a few quarters
4. Fed made a mistake, a preemptive rate raise is way better than the force raise
5. he thinks Fed will raise interest rate – for sure
6. it is a great risk for economy to be overheating
7. you want to own businesses which have pricing power and their businesses will not change dramatically when rate goes up
8.  if rate rises, growth stocks will crash
9. The fund, with net assets of nearly $10 billion, has a concentrated equity investment portfolio that includes Lowe’s (LOW), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Agilent Technologies Inc (US:A), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Howard Hughes (HHC), and Domino’s (DPZ).

• 11/19/2020 – Ackman’s interview – never mind to be a good trader occasionally; read everything from Buffett; long year 2021; An industrial company today can probably go public with a technology multiple” – on the booming demand for warehouses from e-commerce companies.

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman discussed his pandemic hedge, praised Trump, and explained his Berkshire Hathaway exit in a recent interview. Here are the 19 best quotes

Here are Ackman’s 19 best quotes, condensed and lightly edited for clarity:

• 1. “I had seen the Matt Damon ‘Contagion’ film so perhaps that was framing the mind” – on his early concerns about COVID-19.
• 2. “My theory was the only way to shut this thing down ultimately would be a global economic shutdown, and the markets were not trading as if there was going to be a global economic shutdown” – on his decision to hedge Pershing’s stock portfolio.
• 3. “I felt what it was like to be a trader for the first time in my life. I’m not really a trader, but it was cool and I insisted on trading it alongside my traders just because it was fun” – on the experience of reversing his fund’s hedge after it paid off, using a laptop on a makeshift desk in a beach house.
• 4. “If you want to learn about the investment business just read everything Warren Buffett’s written, watch every interview he’s ever given.”
• 5. “The untold story of Berkshire is that it owns a lot of companies that, frankly, have opportunities for improvement and margin enhancement. I think Buffett’s one of the great allocators of capital, but also part of his whole ‘schtick’ is not getting involved in the management of any of the businesses that he’s acquired.”
• 6. “We felt that the next generation of leadership is gonna do less of the big Warren Buffett-type acquisitions and more of actually optimizing the portfolio” – detailing one of his reasons for investing in Berkshire, along with its attractive valuation and the promise of bigger stock buybacks.
• 7. “We’ve handed our capital to Warren to invest, but he’s handicapped a bit because he’s lugging around hundreds of billions of dollars” – on the thinking that led Pershing to sell its Berkshire stake. Ackman and his team were surprised Buffett didn’t deploy Berkshire’s cash more aggressively when the pandemic caused markets to tank in the spring.
• 8. “We have probably lost more money in Berkshire Hathaway than anyone in the world.”
• 9. “It’s a way for us to buy a super high-quality private company and add it to our stable” – on the purpose of Pershing Square Tontine, Ackman’s special-purpose acquisition vehicle or SPAC that raised $4 billion when it went public in July.
• 10. “The state of corporate governance, how directors think about their roles as fiduciaries has come very, very far over 17 years as a direct result of shareholder activism.”
• 11. “It’s like running for office. It’s the same dirty tricks and cheating, and claimed cheating on how the votes are being counted, and false advertising” – on the reality of being an activist shareholder.
• 12. “China was a tea-drinking country until Starbucks showed up.”
• 13. “Trump’s actually done a lot of good, he’s done some harm as well and he’s done it in a way that I think is far from ideal” – praising the president’s corporate-tax reforms and efforts to bring manufacturing back to the US.
• 14. “Ivanka’s probably gonna run in four years and I think how he handles this will affect her ability to get elected” – on the risk that President Trump’s refusal to concede the presidential election will hurt his daughter’s chances to become president in the future.
• 15. “It’s probably the single greatest time in history to open a restaurant” – Ackman pointed to pent-up demand fueled by lockdowns, low rents, and less competition due to restaurant closures during the pandemic.
• 16. “2021 could be a very, very good year in markets. Go long” – the investor highlighted low interest rates, potentially more stimulus, possible infrastructure spending, well-capitalized banks, and easy access to capital.
• 17. “I think unsophisticated people will take this announcement as, ‘Oh I don’t have to worry,’ and you want people to be a bit scared” – on the risk that Pfizer’s positive vaccine news makes people complacent and less diligent about taking precautions against catching and spreading the virus.
• 18. “An industrial company today can probably go public with a technology multiple” – on the booming demand for warehouses from e-commerce companies, and the fact that even Amazon, which controls many aspects of its business, still has to pay rent.
• 19. “If I ever think about it, just tell me the number I need to call to make sure I don’t do it again” – on the subject of whether he would return to short-selling.

09/01/2020 – Ackman’s turnaround in 2019

Bill Ackman‘s investment turn around lesson in 2019: he attributed his performance to reading Buffett’s early letters to investors. I should also read Buffett’s letters everyday.

Pershing Square Capital, Ackman’s publicly traded hedge fund, ended the year up 58.1%, , massively outperforming the S&P 500’s near 30% return and the average hedge fund’s near 10% return.

So how did Ackman pull off this turnaround?

In 2019, he attributed his performance to reading Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)’s early letters to investors, particularly regarding his thoughts about a long-term capital structure.

Referencing Buffett’s decision to shutter his investment partnerships in 1969, Ackman told the 13-D Active-Passive Investor Summit, “I think what Mr. Buffett realized in 1969 is that being a longterm investor with short-dated capital is just ultimately going to lead to a bad outcome at some point in time.”

This is why Ackman has been concentrating his efforts on his publicly traded vehicle rather than the private hedge fund, which is susceptible to short-termism.

The value manager also told his audience in 2019 that he’s refocused his operations on finding simple, predictable and cash flow-positive companies rather than complex, high-risk, high-reward opportunities like Valeant.

We can learn a lot from Ackman’s turnaround. He’s admitted his mistakes, reinvented his portfolio and moved on. That requires a lot of humility and emotional strength. He might have attracted criticism for investments in the past, but we can’t attack his decision to take a step back and re-evaluate his process.

Bill Ackman: Getting Back Up [The Knowledge Project Ep. #82] [ the detailed interview on Bill Ackman

Billionaire Bill Ackman explains how he pulled off a deal described as ‘the single best trade of all time’

Ackman explained in details in his investor letter about his hedge (Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. Releases Letter to Investors)

6. Whitney Tilson:

Tilson on GGP and GSE investment (Tileson_on_GGP_n_GSE) – good analysis