By Amey Stone

Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence have been closely following the downturn in U.S. retail.

The industry’s woes have already resulted in 10 U.S. bankruptcies this year, including Wet Seal, Limited Stores, and Payless.

In a new blog post, Jim Elder, director of risk services, lists the 10 retailers most likely to file for bankruptcy. That doesn’t mean they will default, but does means they are among the most vulnerable.

Here’s the top 10 shown with their one year probability of default (PD) and implied credit score:

• Sears Holdings (SHLD): 24% PD, triple-C
• DGSE Companies (DGSE): 15% PD, triple-C-plus
• Appliance Recycling Centers of America (ARCI): 12%PD, triple-C-plus
• Bon-Ton Stores (BONT): 10% PD, triple-C-plus
• Bebe Stores (BEBE): 10% PD, triple-C-plus (This company announced Friday it is closing all stores and liquidating merchandise. It plans to operate online only.)
• Destination XL Group (DXLG): 8% PD, B-minus
• Perfumania Holdings (PERF): 7% PD, B-minus
• Fenix Parts (FENX): 7% PD, B-minus
• Tailored Brands (TLRD): 7% PD, B-minus
• Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores (SHOS): 6% PD, B-minus

In its report on the retail sector, S&P writes:

Retail’s troubles are manifold, and the diagnosis is different in each struggling company’s case, but it is widely agreed that the U.S. is over-stored and that the solution for flat or declining in-store sales resides to a significant degree online, where the most sales growth is now taking place.