Wells Fargo’s valuation on AIG

Wells Forgo recently upgraded the stock valuation AIG,

WFC-valuation-on-aig-Apr-2012

We are upgrading the shares of AIG to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect the likelihood that the company will be independent from the US Government over the course of the next year. To this end, we expect AIG to become an increasingly active capital manager, which could be accretive to the company’s earnings per share and return on equity. Our EPS estimates for 2012 and 2013 increase to $3.38 and $3.06 from $2.50 and $2.80, respectively. Our valuation range is increased to $40 to $45 per share, up from $27 to $30 pershare. We expect AIG shares to trade with a positive bias.

Valuation Range: $40.00 to $45.00 from $27.00 to $30.00. Our valuation range is $40-45 per share, which corresponds to 0.75x of our 2012 proforma book value estimate of about $58, which excludes AOCI. Risks to our valuation range include asset sales at distressed valuations, a lack of liquidity in the M&A marketplace, declining investment income, rising catastrophe exposure, business retention, and soft pricing conditions.

Investment Thesis:

We believe AIG will likely be independent from the US Government over the courseof the next year, and rate the shares Outperform.

Please note that WFC’s valuation on AIG is very conservative, under “normal” ecomonic condition, the value multiplier for AIG is 1.0x~1.2x rather than 0.75x. So the potential upside is very significant.

News: AIG’s Chairman Steve Miller Says U.S. Exit Could Be Done Within 12 Months.

If Fed exits AIG territory, the confidence and interest of investor in AIG will get boost dramatically. Let us wait a sit what will unfold.

About Timeless Investor

My name is Samual Lau. I am a long-term value investor and a zealous disciple of Ben Graham. And I am a MBA graduated in May 2010 from Carnegie Mellon University. My concentrations are Finance, Strategy and Marketing.
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One Response to Wells Fargo’s valuation on AIG

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